Fifty years after the 1962 war, India has fashioned a pragmatic model of
cooperation with China, placing economics above politics, but it has to
bolster its diplomatic game and military capability to deal with an
assertive Beijing, say China watchers.
The bitter memories of the
1962 war, in which India was humbled, still loom over the strategic
community and the collective public consciousness. But that has not
stopped the Indian establishment from following a multi-faceted policy
of engagement to deal with Beijing.
"2012 is not 1962. India and
China have come a long way as nations and in their bilateral relations.
The situation on the ground has changed," Nalin Surie, a former
ambassador of India to China, told IANS when asked about the prospects
of a conflict between India and China.
"Both have a much greater
salience in the world which too has greatly changed since the end of the
Cold War and in the international economic crisis," he said.
Indeed,
the dynamics of trade in a globally connected world, more so now with
the developed world suffering an economic downturn, has made cooperation
and competition more viable than rivalry and temptations to military
adventurism.
Bilateral trade has grown manifold to $75 billion,
making China India's largest trading partner, and is set to exceed $100
billion by 2015. India is pitching for greater Chinese investment in
infrastructure, which has exceeded $40 billion, despite some security
anxieties in India.
This economic model has not precluded off and
on tensions over a host of issues including border incursions, Chinese
visa policy for Indians from Jammu and Kashmir, and Chinese claims over
Arunachal Pradesh.
The scenarios of rivalry, mostly emanating
from Western think tanks, have found greater amplification in the media
and strategic communities of both the countries which see each other as a
principal strategic threat.
Surie agrees that the "trust deficit
has not been wholly bridged," but cautions against the tendency to
project Sino-Indian relations as "a zero sum game".
"India and
China are not in competition on every issue. Competition in several
areas is inherent given the objective political and economic situation
in our countries, in the Asia Pacific and the world."
Lalit
Mansingh, a former Indian foreign secretary, feels that the China threat
is more real, specially in the last two-three years, when New Delhi has
been facing the heat from Beijing on a range of issues.
"We have
seen a growing number of Chinese incursions and China issues
belligerent statements. China's military, nuclear and missile
cooperation with Pakistan continues. We have to see Pakistan and China
as a combined threat," Mansingh told IANS.
"Most important, the
Chinese have abandoned their policy of neutrality on Jammu and Kashmir.
They have hiked their massive investments in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir
and in Gilgit-Baltistan," he said.
Mansingh wants India to review
its China policy and suggests it should revive the Tibet card and start
a dialogue with Beijing on Tibet.
"We recognised Tibet as an
autonomous part of China but China has not extended the reciprocity
vis-a-vis Kashmir. We have been sensitive to China's concerns. It's time
for China to be more sensitive to each other's concerns," he said.
Srikanth
Kondapalli, a China expert at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, rules
out a military conflict with China but advises enhanced military and
strategic capabilities to deal with Beijing.
"India and China are
both nuclear-armed powerful economies. The costs of war will be too
huge for both. At best, there could be a highly localised border
skirmish," he said.
Looking ahead, India needs to understand the
Chinese strategic culture better. Both nations need to bridge the
perception gap among their influential sections.
"What's more
worrying is the overall growth and influence of the People's Liberation
Army in decision-making, specially in areas relating to foreign policy,"
Ravni Thakur, a China expert at Delhi University, told IANS.
Describing
deception as an integral part of Chinese culture, Shyam Saran, a former
foreign secretary, said recently that avoiding a conflict with China
will require India to fashion a strategy based on a familiarity with the
Chinese strategic calculus.
The perception gap also needs to be bridged.
"The
elite is predominantly negative about each other; the business
community and middle class have negative perceptions," said Kondapalli. A
recent survey by the Washington-based Pew Research has revealed that
less than 25 percent of Chinese like India.
India-China trade blooms



