Research and ratings agency Crisil Tuesday cut India's economic growth
forecast to 5.5 percent for the 2012-13 financial year from its earlier
estimate of 6.5 percent, citing deficient monsoon and worsening Eurozone
crisis.
It also raised India's core inflation forecast to 8 percent for this fiscal from 7 percent announced earlier.
"The
downward revision in India's growth forecast factors in the adverse
impact of rainfall deficiency (an expected deficiency of 15 percent for
June-September 2012) and worsening of the Eurozone growth outlook,"
Crisil said in a report.
Referring to a Standard & Poor's
forecast, it said Eurozone economy was likely to contract by 0.6 percent
in the current year.
Despite slowing growth, Crisil revised
upward its average Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation forecast for
2012-13 to 8 percent to reflect the adverse impact of deficient monsoon
on food inflation.
Crisil's growth estimate is much lower than
the growth forecast announced by the government. The government is
aiming at around 7 percent growth, while the Reserve Bank of India last
week lowered the growth outlook to 6.5 percent for 2012-13.
India's
economic growth slumped to nine-year low of 5.3 percent in the quarter
ended March. For 2011-12, India's GDP expanded by 6.5 percent,
substantially down from 8.4 percent growth registered in the previous
year.
In the report, "India: Macroeconomic Outlook Revision
2012-13", Crisil sees more pain in Indian economy as all the
macro-economic parameters are estimated to worsen.
"We now
expect the fiscal deficit to worsen to 6.2 percent of GDP in 2012-13
from our earlier estimate of 5.8 percent," it said.
The increase
in the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio largely reflects lower revenue
growth as a result of slowing GDP growth. In case of a substantial
fiscal stimulus to the economy, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio could
worsen further, the report said.
"Indian rupee is now expected
to settle around 53 against a dollar by March 2013 compared to our
earlier forecast of 50 against a dollar, Crisil said.
"Given the
worsening of the Euro zone economy as well as domestic growth slowdown,
we now expect the Indian economy to attract lower foreign capital
inflows compared to our earlier estimate," it added.
Crisil cuts India's growth forecast to 5.5 percent



